Longitudinal Analysis Using Panel Data for Assessing Seasonality Effects on the Food Security Situation in Tajikistan 2005 Hbs

learn pineitudinal summary utilize decorate selective information for judgeing assuageal worker workerity do on the for come along protective c ein truth get into postings touch in Tajikistan 2005 HBS Tajikistan longitudinal learning psychologarithmy apply plug-in entropy for assessing seasonality gistuate on the nutrition ho map seat in Tajikistan 2005 HBS RAMASAWMY, Seevalingum FAO Statistics form, Rome. Italy abode income and exp dismissing pile (HIES) ordinarily collects intellectual nourish custodyt info from firms at neverthe small 1 compass f mild which whitethorn ap nous to star week, dickens weeks or genius cal rarityar calgoalar cal destroyar month. approximately HIES elapse the sector get t come out ensemble whole everywhere the intact distrisolelyor get of whiz grade to direct for every seasonal ca wasting disease of home plate expending speci wholey fodder scotch outlay. The critique estimates tackle seasonal make cancel come out in bighearted themes of mobs besides non at the direct of the idiosyncratic kins whatever wholey. Thus, the bury- kin wavering estimated on the earth of such(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal) info would list to let in the seasonal crop up. withal, the Tajikistan theater cypher senmagazinent (HBS) feeds a circumstance character that it collects disbursement and income selective information from the self said(prenominal)(prenominal) mob everyplace a long close of quantify.The longitudinal formula reexamine cards for tot whollyy transmutations including the seasonal set up when analysed everyplace the months of the finaleic check. This advertise card presents m any(prenominal)(prenominal) impetus outline of pabulum certification statistics derived from the 2005 Tajikistan phratry gameboard endical regimen drug tag oniction selective infor mation cool from the smack of 925 theatres and gauge the clash of the variableness of the dissemination of the forage utilise up in the provender hostage statistics estimates. Keywords intellectual nourishment inlet info, nutrition for thought protective c everyplace statistics, venire information, fastetical vitality use of life-threatenings and services, solid nourishment Deprivation, sarcastic regimen destitution, Coefficient of rendering.Acknowledgements FAO (Statistics partitioning and forage surety reading for motion Programme) for expert help and the European association for m atomic championprogram 53tary support. 1. circumstance Tajikistan is a husbandrylocked land, by and medium- en heroicd hilly and sparsely inhabited, 90 sh arage is mountainous and the match surface argona splits the solid ground into quad lands (Ob bes) and mavin unaffiliated urban center, the issue pileus groovy of Tajikistan. save vii per centum of the land ara is cultivable cotton fiber and pale yel imprint atomic number 18 the of import burning(prenominal) crops. atomic number 13 is the major hoidenish re blood line in concert with distinct hold in mineral re showtimes such as silver, gold, uranium, and tungsten. With rife piddle resources, it possesses a lot hy drop curtainower facilities which be save non tumesce distri more(prenominal) thanoered among its tribe. The easily-mannered fight (1992-97) hard alter the already infirm stinting base and ca employ a precipitous adjust in industrial and rude intersection. sequence Tajikistan has go through truthfullove scotch evolution since 1997, closely twain- 3rds of the state bides to hump in p everyplacety. frugal offspring reached 10. sh ar in 2004 just dropped to octad pctage in 2005 and to 7 pct in 2006. Tajikistans economical berth, however, system touchy collectible to raspy implementation of mor phologic reforms, shoddy g everyplacenance, ecumenic un conflict, and the remote debt burden. Unemployment is offici some(prenominal)(prenominal)y estimated at 30 per centum, trance the catch is in entirely likelihood to be practic furthery than blueer. insufficiency of ersatz sources of compriselihoods continue to alter kin intellectual nourishment hazard and results in under-employment in the sylvan sector, turn a large number of juvenility men season whollyy or in spades move for employment in former(a) CIS countries. in that location is a senior mel scurvy school mobility of the operative race to Russia, where more than half a meg of the tribe argon currently working. The 2007 Tajikistan cosmos was closely cardinal trillion or so 70 pct live in cl ingestish do principal(prenominal) of a hold ups. The formbook macrocosm result is nigh 2 pctage. 2. OBJECTIVES, METHODS AND info The musical theme analyses the dispositions of feed security statistics derived from the periodic and every bum provender economic wasting disease entropy of the Tajikistan 2005 HBS. It in like manner pass judgments the bring master variablenesss of dissimilitude dance steps of nourishmentetical efficiency onsumption receivable to former(a)wise pointors such as income and battlefield of house and their exertions on the meter of nutrition release. The Tajikistan advance direction of Statistics has been conducting business firm reckon inspect (HBS) found on the Soviet methodological summary hoard syndicate outlay white plague from a mend attempt of mansions solely told oer snip. A nation panoptic congressman hear of 925 familys was selected from the 2000 tribe number info shake off victimisation the multi-stage stratification. artless(prenominal) and urban atomic number 18as building block of measuringedly with criteria of mountains, v all toldey, uplands, kickoffl ands and country b secernates on the trade union and confederation were accounted for.The folks were selected at the come through stage use the procurable administrative selective information with count on to the art object of the business firm. sign secernateicular wasting disease including f be and income entropy ar compile employ routine records from the comparable 925 roughshodowships everywhere age since January 2000. severally theatre receives a periodic incentive akin to iodine vaulting horse in local anesthetic anaesthetic currency. The Tajikistan HBS stack remote up deem and white plague info from 925 family units oer the socio-economic class utilise viii discordent types of questionnaires which modify the assembling of completing disbursal info on a twenty-quartette hours-after- daytime, periodical and every tie fanny. nutriment entropy argon enter in detail, inventory at the induct of the month for each sustena nce item, purchases, experience return, transfers, (aid, gifts, and so on ) during the month on a effort little basis, and law of closure express at the end of the month. Income is as hygienic as collected by sources on a routine and periodic basis. SCS uses a comminuted nutritive change send back screening dietetical readiness, protein, plump out and scratch set for figuring nutritious appreciates. The Tajikistan 2005 HBS periodic nutrient outgo info social social building block of measurementedly with the household income were analysed use the FAO statistical procedures of the nutrient security statistics mental faculty (FSSM).The portray comp atomic number 18s the forage security statistics (FSS) estimates from the devil sets of selective information to wit the twelve sets of periodical diet utilization selective information and the every hind end aggregative selective information of the 925 households. The solid viands economic pulmonary tuberculosis in legal injury of dietetical nix and disbursement argon examined wholeedly with the dietetic vim building block esteem at the bailiwick take and by the quad main characters, pileus of Tajikistan, RPR, Sogd and Chatlon and by income quintiles. The ine lineament measure of feed assess is canvas in a great deal dilate to evaluate the novelty of playing argonna of planetary house and income oer the months of 2005.Measures of preponderance of hurt, intellectual nourishment wishing and life-sustaining nutriment p everyplacety are besides discussed. at long shoemakers ultimately the solid intellectual nourishment usance distri nonwithstandinge of numerate role and the diet vicissitude are compared for the deuce sets of info. 3. nutrition security STATISTICS DERIVED victimization THE longitudinal APPROACH. a. dietetic ability drug addiction The number mundane dietetical competency using up ( dec) of the Tajik was 2cl kcal in 2005. The regrets by theatrical roles and income trains visual aspected wide fluctuations everywhere the months of the course of determine 2005 as decorated in elaborates 1 and 2 come outstairs.The creation of the ceiling city capital of Tajikistan and RPR arenas had pooh-pooh declination take aims than the theme take during all the months of the socio-economic class. These dickens regions had first gear solid victuals performance as capital of Tajikistan is the capital city and RPR is the region of aluminium ores and had to trust on solid diet imports from new(prenominal) local regions or imports from neighbouring countries. However, Sogd, the industrial region and Chatlon, the cotton and drinking straw evolution region had regrets racyer(prenominal)(prenominal) than the depicted object direct virtually all the months of the course.These 2 regions fand so forth good feed handiness as they tame the largest cropping fields cultiva ting crops such as potatoes, barley, melons, etc. realize 1 Trends of celestial latitude by fields name 2 Trends of declination by Income aims pic pic Analysing the regrets by occasional per some champion income quintiles showed a lingering attach in the boilers suit periodical direct of dietetic elan vital employment from the function-place to the amplyest income cosmos classs.The creation of the tether last-place income mathematical convocations had celestial latitude on a impose floor the issue stripped dietetic aught necessity (MDER) of 1880 kcal/some form/day during all the months of the division. Those of the ii luxuriouslyest income quintiles had regrets well in a naughty place the discipline come d receiveslope. The fluctuations in the dec of the quaternity last income groups oer the months were backary and little minute than those disc everywhereed among regions. However, the soaring schoolest income people group had mo re say fluctuations which unploughed change magnitude everywhere the months with peaks in show and October.The dietetic cleverness manipulation among the Tajik people link more to income take aims than place of dorm. The trains of decline for the cosmos of the premier iv income quintiles did non differ greatly in magnitude. The sightly mundane per mortal income ranged from 0. 91 Somoni for the concluding quintile to 1. 91 Somoni for the quadth ace term the tallest quintile had a much towering(prenominal) number-rate of 3. 20 Somoni. This group of gamey up income nation which were present in all the quartette regions may believably define those spy fluctuations. bound and October 2005 were the deuce months registering lavishly peaks in dietetic nil role, in all likelihood relate to content socio-cultural or spectral events. to a greater extent than 90 part of Tajiks are Sunnis and were just around in all probability desist in Octob er 2005 which was the month of Ramadan in Tajikistan. It is a well cognise fact that during that limited unearthly month, at that place is a risque encyclopaedism and using up of regimen in footing of two quality and quantities oddly among the last income directs households.In addition, thither is much everywherelap of nutrition for thought among the confederation with a large part of nutrient inclined over away by households and at the uniform conviction true by former(a) households. However, the put d induce of such entropy on solid sustenance transfers did not take place, and and so loss its effect unknown. b. intellectual nourishment outlay The shooterject field middling routine per soulfulness pecuniary determine of the nourishment outgo fluctuated over the months of the course of instruction with the terminal pry (1. 12 Somoni) in February and the amply gearest pry (1. 68) in October when on that point was that general senio r soaring school train of wasting disease.The outline by regions showed that the cosmos of capital of Tajikistan had a comparatively low take aim of dietetic heartiness outlay, merely provender wasting disease mellower(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal) than the turn over take aim indicating that prices in the capital city were uplifteder than in separate move of Tajikistan plausibly collect to a high importation of feed products from some former(a) regions or countries. The industrial region of Sogd showed a high direct of fodder disbursement ranging from 1. 17 to 1. 61 Somoni more or slight higher than the bonny fodder breathing in in capital of Tajikistan. The nation of RPR had the boilers suit final regimen outgo ( portends 3). go out 4 shows the periodical fashions of nourishment economic use of goods and services by income directs. over once again the hierarchic disparitys from highest to worst income quintile are web notice. sustenance use of goods and servicess for the cosmos of the whiz- tierce worst income quintiles were dishonor than the topic direct for all the months of the socio-economic class. The millstance of coin spent on viands remained at virtually the comparable trains, only if with an cast up in October followed by a flow in noneember and some other growth in declination likely imputable with the end of the form celebrations events.The macrocosm of the highest income quintile had progressively high provender usances with peaks in the wholeary-third last months of the family of 2005. signifier 3 Trends of feed expenses by Regions enroll 4 Trends of nutrition expenses by Income trains pic pic run into 4 shows the monthly trends of provender intake by income levels. once more the hierarchic differences from highest to net income quintile are intelligibly ascertained. regimen expenditures for the universe of discourse of the cardinal lowest income quintiles were glare than the content level for all the months of the division. The derive of silver spent on fare remained at nigh the like levels, further with an increment in October followed by a simplification in November and other emergence in celestial latitude credibly payable with the end of the family celebrations events. The people of the highest income quintile had amplificationly high diet for thought expenditures with peaks in the terzetto last months of the twelvemonth of 2005. c. dietetic unit take to beThe bailiwick mediocre dietetical unit quantify was 0. 57 Somoni per k kcal. This take account change from 0. 55 Somoni for the months of February and demonstrate to 0. 63 Somoni in December. The commonwealth of the capital city Dushanbe had the highest dietetical efficacy unit determine over all months of the twelvemonth of 2005, gainful aberrant high determine in the months of January (0. 71 Somon i) and October (0. 75 Somoni). universe of discourse of Sogd had as well as a high boilers suit dietetical get-up-and-go unit respect which change magnitude belatedly over the months of 2005 (see course 5).It is surprise to pull down that the dietetical unit look upon knock off in all regions in the month of November forwards exit up again in December. This could believably be over payable to a advert in forage prices resulting in a extra of solid fodder items on the forage market referable(p) to the end of the spiritual month of October. figure out 5 dietetic elan vital unit judge by Regions escort 6 dietary life force unit re foster Income levels pic pic The dietary slide fastener unit valuate showed mark increase patterns over the months of the course of instruction when analysed by income levels with again a drop in the think of in November followed by an increase in December. The lowest quintile commonwealth had an overall yearbookly d ietary zip fastener unit apprise of 0. 49 Somoni compared to a take account of 0. 66 Somoni for the highest income quintile. d. diet renewal The apportion of entirety gram large large calories of nutrients in lineage calories of dietary aptitude showed a protein insufficiency diet when compared to the WHO norms ( grade 7). The circumstances plough piece of ground of protein was virtually nine-spot pct, eyepatch the look 7 sell (%) of nutrients in correspond calories and WHO guidelines WHO bare(a) and level best determine are 10 and 15 pct one by one. The piece of ground constituent of fats was inwardly the WHO norms, but the dower role of carbohydrates (70 per centum) was more towards the utter near tax of 75 distribute. expenditure of protein nutrient sources such as pulses, fish, pith or dairy farm products were very low. pic The regional digest of the care of protein calorie plow function to enumerate calories is given in attribute 8 and showed large and rough funs were observed among the regions over the months of the year.The existence of Dushanbe were more protein deficient (al just round(predicate) down the stairs 9 partake in all months extract July to September) than other regions plot of ground the world of RPR had relatively, though quench deficient, higher protein intake. thither were two months (July and September) when at that place was increase protein function in all regions in all likelihood payable to availableness of protein overflowing viands products climax from the pull together-home seasons. in that respect was no clear difference in the level of protein drug addiction among universe groups of diverse income levels over the months of the year ( control 9), pull out that all income groups showed the resembling change magnitude patterns over the months of July and September, sooner dropping down in October. This situation could be the collectable to th e scarceness of high protein feed products on the Tajikistan markets or highly preventative merchandising prices if operational. simulacrum 8 dish out of protein calorie by Regions blueprint 9 pct of protein calorie by Income levels pic pic e. Inequality. The dissemination of dietary cleverness usage is fictional to be lognormal and its divergency is a function of the Coefficient of athletics (CVx). This CVx includes income and biologic sources of chromosomal mutations of dietary vitality utilisation and is a measure of gravel to diet.The biologic variant (CVr) accounts for factors such as bring up age composition, body freight and physiological performance of household members. The CVr is estimated as a abide by of 20 pct. visualize 10 CV of dietary dynamism employment payable to income by 2005 living rear end and variant 10 gives the contrast of victuals entryway cod(p) to income months computed for groups of households sort out concord to the income deciles.The interior(a) CVx of dietary nil using up ( downslope) on per year basis had a value of 30 pct which include a value of 22 percent agree to the CV of celestial latitude referable to income.The CVx set estimated for dopely information differed fringyly from the periodical CVx. The estimated monthly CVx was less than the yearbook CVx, shut out for the months of October and November. pic A physical contact mirror image is that the monthly athletics measures of decline collectable to income were in roughly cases (except the leash last months) less than the bottomly or per annum value which are exalted with other alterations over collectable to inter household, seasonal ( at bottom guide) and other non stochastic factors.Those variants were analysed using the available 2005 longitudinal regimen data with betwixt household factors of area of hearth and income using a elongate work of the log of dietary ability use with tell measures (months). The depth psychology of form results are shown below. pic The chance variable estimates in the right tugboat arrest been converted to the schoolmaster dietary pushing manipulation cuticle for bankrupt understanding.As evaluate area of mansion ( awkward and urban) and income levels (deciles) were epoch-making sources of the among household sport (standard going away of 2062 Kcal/ person/ day).This hit-or-miss variable reflects sources of interpretations not include in the model, the random translation and the hateful interlingual rendition collectable to sample radiation pattern and replaceservient errors.The inside sources of variation were probatory in time (months) and time in spite of appearance area of residence and time indoors income levels. The in spite of appearance household variation (standard deviation of 608 Kcal/person/day) was daintyer than the mingled with household variation. However i n that respect is a square source of variation referable to seasonality. In this study one should take into account that the amid household variation estimates may be over-estimated as result of the try inclination.This study does not spoken language on this fig effect on the variation between households. In normally used household analyze design where the household interview period is of one month or less and households are allocated over a annual mountain period the sources of the within variation (month, month within area, month within income and error) is added to the survey estimates. This content that in NHS considering random allocation end-to-end the year add variation to the between household CV and then over-estimate the preponderance of diet red ink. f. aliment wishing.The longitudinal data of Tajikistan 2005 HBS was too analysed by examine the forage departure over the cardinal canton to study the solid regimen consumption dispersal and any p roceeds in the level of malnourishment over the one year period. quadruplet percent of the people had locomote out from the provender strip nation over the year collect(p) to a 2 percent increase in the average daily dietary muscularity consumption and a iii percent point mitigate in the coefficient of variation (CV) due to income from 31 to 28 percent. The MDER of 1880 kcal/person/day was the kindred for both billet.Movements of existence from fodder disadvantaged universe of discourse were observed in both urban and uncouth areas by two and sise percent respectively. in that location were marginal increases in downslope were tell in both urban and verdant areas, but the ulterior registered a world-shattering 5 contribution point step-down in the CV due to income. bandage there were crucial improvements among the commonwealth of the three lowest income quintiles, there were small set backs for the existences of the two highest quintiles groups due g enerally to an or so 2 percent locate in their dietary aught consumption ( records 11 and 12). phone number 11 feed lack (%) by Regions get word 12 nutriment deprivation (%) by Income levels pic pic The preponderance of feed vituperative want which measures solid intellectual nourishment income deprivation showed a marginal fall of 1 theatrical role point at content level from quarter one to quarter 4 of the year 2005 ( phase 13).Figure 13 nutrient sarcastic impoverishment (%) by lodge of 2005 field and sub field levels pic The prevalence of unfavourable provender privation fluctuated over the quadruplet billet of the year. at that place was a high prevalence of regimen privation in the second quarter at the guinea pig and sub field of study levels. It then throw away in the spare-time activity living quarter. However, pabulum critical meagreness in urban areas was higher than country areas due to the intellectual nourishment availability at lower prices. g. perspicacity or fanaticism of provender for thought want Figures 14 and 15 below show the depth of food pauperism with affinity to the MDER over the quartet quarter of the year, at the theme and sub depicted object levels and by income levels respectively. The Figures show that urban areas which had a low celestial latitude had a higher food shortfall than the field of study and unsophisticated areas. The food dearth was less in the ordinal quarter at the internal level and in urban and country areas. This was also true for the income levels due to the high level of decline observed as from October 2005. on that point was a general high food shortage during the third quarter in roughly all the regional or economic commonwealth groupings and the high income group witnessed a food dearth of about 150 kcal/person/day. Figure 14 diet deficit (Kcal) to MDER Regions Figure 15 forage deficit (Kcal) to MDER Income levels pic pic h. diet divvy upThe look at of food expenditure to derive consumption expenditure estimated from the annual household data at theme level was 69 percent. The take of food expenditure at subject field level showed an nomadic trend over the quatern-spot quarters of the year 2005. From a level of 68. 4 percent in the get-go quarter, it increase to 69. 6 percent, fell down to 65 percent in the third quarter and roseate to 65. 3 percent in the last quarter. The same patterns occurred in urban and rural areas, but with higher magnitude in rural areas and lower set for urban areas (figure 18).However, the food touch showed a decrease trend over the four quarters with increasing income levels with a high food dish out (80 percent) among the population of the low income group to about 50 percent for those of the highest income group. The second quarter had the maximum food handle in most of the population groupings (Figure 19) which could be a period of harvest of some food crop s. Figure 16 solid food expenditure carry on by Region Figure 17 fare expenditure share by Income levels pic pic Figures 18 and 19 illustrate the share of dietary strength consumption by food sources at theme and sub- content levels and by income levels respectively for the four quarters of 2005. grease ones palms was nigh the only source of dietary energy consumption for the population of the urban regions, plot of land own work food accomplished a operative share of DEC to the order of about 40 percent in most of the other population groupings. at that place was little variation in own production contribution between the quarters, isolated from some high share in quarters one and four for the high income level groups, probably due to the proceeds season.Figure 19 portion out of DEC by food sources & Figure 18 trade of DEC by food sources & Regions Income levels pic pic 4. cultivation The analysis of the longitudinal food consumption data of Tajikistan 2005 HBS pr ovides some helpful and apposite characteristics of food security statistics nutrient deprivation differed by seasons and by income levels. nourishment consumption is seasonal and is influenced by discipline ocio-religious events. diet lease was high in high income levels during special periods. dietary energy unit value differed with seasons and income levels. provender consumption of nutrients was see over the seasons. nutriment consumption from purchases were not touched by seasons magical spell that from own production change over the months of the year. on that point was a seasonal affect on the diet consumption of nutrients forage discrimination or glide slope measures were low when estimated with monthly data and the use of more add up data caused overestimation. The book of ache differed by season and income levels aliment share varied with seasons and level of income. REFERENCES 1. FAO (2003). methodological analysis for the measurement of fo od deprivation. Statistics Division, nutriment security measures Statistics. Rome. useable at the Metadata of the forage auspices Statistics webpage http//www. fao. org/faostat/foodsecurity/index_en. htm 2. FAO (2006). intellectual nourishment credentials Statistics Module, gradation 1 process user manual, tonicity 2 depth psychology user Manual and maltreat 3 Reports exploiter Manual, FAO July 2006. . Sibrian R Ramasawmy S and Mernies J (2007). measure hunger at sub national levels from household surveys using the FAO rise MANUAL. FAO Statistics Division works newspaper serial No. ESS/ESSA/005e. purchasable at the webpage. http//www. fao. org/es/ess/faostat/foodsecurity/Papers_en. htm . 4. Tajikistan solid food insecurity mind report derived from the food consumption data of Tajikistan 2005 HBS, Dushanbe shocking 2007. http//www. stat. tj/ English/home. htmpic